CrisisWatch Bulletin No 42, 1 February 2007

Date: February 01, 2007 at 10:51:50
From: Int'l Crisis Group, [ool-18b8cd45.dyn.optonline.net]
Subject: CrisisWatch Bulletin No 42, 1 February 2007

URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm

CrisisWatch N°42, 1 February 2007

Seven actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in January 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4588&l=1).

In the Occupied Territories, assassinations and clashes between Hamas and Fatah reached unprecedented levels, leaving over 30 dead and further diminishing prospects of an agreement on a unity government. The political deadlock between the Siniora government and Hizbollah-led opposition in Lebanon escalated sharply, with sectarian and factional violence erupting in several parts of the country.

In Sri Lanka, fighting intensified in the east, where government forces made major advances, including capturing the strategic town of Vakarai, which had been held by Tamil Tiger rebels for 11 years.

Guinea descended into violence as security forces battled thousands of demonstrators calling for the departure of the country’s ailing president, Lansana Conté. The situation also deteriorated in Uganda, Nigeria and India.

Two situations showed improvement in January. North Korea and the U.S. held surprise bilateral talks in Berlin, reportedly reaching a compromise that could ease sanctions on Pyongyang and pave the way for further progress in the next round of six-party talks, due in early February. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein ended its long-standing opposition to the Police Service of Northern Ireland, removing a major obstacle to the establishment of a power-sharing government.

JANUARY 2007 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Guinea, India (non-Kashmir), Israel/Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Uganda

Improved Situations
North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK)

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burkina Faso/Niger, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Corsica, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uz bekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

FEBRUARY 2007 WATCHLIST

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None

Conflict Risk Alerts
None

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database at http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=2937&l=1#C1

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