Eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in March 2008, and four improved, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch released today.
Early results of Zimbabwe’s 29 March presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections were strongly disputed, underlining the risk that escalated repression and unrest may follow but also highlighting the possibility of positive change. As CrisisWatch went to press, reports suggested President Mugabe was under pressure from close associates to resign and/or negotiate a transfer of power.
Protests in Tibet turned violent on 14 March and unrest spread to Tibetan-populated areas of neighbouring provinces, prompting the deployment of thousands of police. Casualty numbers were difficult to verify after foreign media access was heavily restricted; Beijing said there were 22 deaths, while the Tibetan government in exile said over 140. In Kosovo, violence in Mitrovica and Belgrade’s push for partition underscored the fragility of the post-independence situation. Hundreds were killed in Iraq after the government mounted a major operation against Shiite militias operating in Basra, with serious clashes also in Baghdad and cities across the south.
The situation also deteriorated in Armenia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), North Korea, and Somalia.
The situation improved in Cyprus as President Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Talat met in Nicosia for the first time, where they agreed to open the Ledra border crossing and begin preparations for formal reunification talks. In Pakistan, new Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani ordered the release of several members of the judiciary, including former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, amid a relatively peaceful political transition after February’s elections. In the Comoros Islands, the government, backed by African Union troops, restored control over rebel-held Anjouan island quickly and with little resistance. The situation also improved in the Taiwan Strait following the election of Ma Ying-jeou as President, who pledged to improve relations with China.
For April 2008, CrisisWatch identifies Zimbabwe and Nepal as both Conflict Risk Alerts and Conflict Resolution Opportunities. It also identifies Cyprus and Uganda as Conflict Resolution Opportunities.
MARCH 2008 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Armenia, China (internal), Democratic Republic of Congo, Kosovo, Iraq, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), North Korea, Somalia
Improved Situations
Comoros Islands, Cyprus, Pakistan, Taiwan Strait
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Peru, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe
APRIL 2008 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alerts
Nepal, Zimbabwe
Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Cyprus, Nepal, Uganda, Zimbabwe
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators – up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities – are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
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