CrisisWatch Bulletin No. 67

Date: March 01, 2009 at 16:26:36
From: Int'l Crisis Group, []
Subject: CrisisWatch Bulletin No. 67 - March 1, 2009

URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org

Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in February 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

In Bangladesh, disgruntled members of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) paramilitary border force staged a mutiny in their Dhaka barracks, taking some 130 senior military officers hostage and killing over 70. The spread of mutinies to other BDR barracks threatened to spark violence across the country amid fears of retaliation by the military, including a takeover. But steps taken by the government appear to have reduced the threat of any coup.

Conditions in Sri Lanka continued to deteriorate for 200,000 civilians caught between the government’s military offensive against the Tamil Tigers and Tiger attempts to prevent people from fleeing areas under their control. Levels of food, water and medical care are dangerously low. Tensions between North and South Korea also increased, putting Seoul’s armed forces on high alert after Pyongyang’s decision to void political and military agreements with the South. In Guadeloupe, strikes led to violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces before a partial agreement was reached between unions and the government at the end of the month.

Hopes for progress in Zimbabwe were raised as President Mugabe and opposition leader Tsvangirai finally agreed on the formation of a power-sharing government, with Tsvangirai as prime minister. However, serious concerns remain about its successful implementation and political repression continues. In Mali, Tuareg rebels from the Democratic Alliance for Change faction agreed to lay down their arms under an Algerian-brokered peace deal, as government operations against another Tuareg rebel faction continued.

CrisisWatch highlights Bangladesh as a significant conflict risk alert for March, as tensions within and surrounding the military continue to simmer. In Sudan, the International Criminal Court decision, due in early March, on whether to issue an arrest warrant for President Bashir presents both an opportunity to move towards resolving the conflict in Darfur and a potential trigger for increased violence.

February 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Bangladesh, Guadeloupe, North Korea, Sri Lanka

Improved Situations
Mali, Zimbabwe

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus , Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Lest e, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

March 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert
Bangladesh, Sudan

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Sudan

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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