CrisisWatch Bulletin No, 73: September 1, 2009

Date: September 02, 2009 at 18:06:47
From: Int'l Crisis Group, []
Subject: CrisisWatch Bulletin No, 73: September 1, 2009

URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org

Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and three improved in August 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

Violence continued to escalate in Chechnya and in the North Caucasus republics of Ingushetia and Dagestan. Intensified attacks by insurgents throughout the month included a suicide bombing on police headquarters in the Ingushetia capital Nazran that killed 25 and injured over 100 on 17 August. As violence in Chechnya worsened, the murder of NGO head Zarema Sadulayeva, just weeks after the slaying of prominent rights activist Natalia Estemirova, prompted strong local and international condemnation.

In Yemen, the ongoing conflict in the north escalated as the government launched an offensive against the Zaidi Shiite Houthi rebels in Saada and Amran provinces, backed by airstrikes and artillery fire. Proposals from both sides have failed to result in a ceasefire. Dozens are reported to have been killed including civilians, and the UN reported at least 35,000 displaced since early August.

The situation also deteriorated in Niger, where President Tandja pressed forward with his controversial and unconstitutional bid for a third term, and in Senegal, which witnessed a vicious upsurge in attacks by suspected Casamance separatists.

Crisis Group identifies Armenia/Turkey as an improved situation, following the announcement of a major breakthrough on 31 August with the agreement, under Swiss mediation, of protocols to establish diplomatic relations and normalise ties. The protocols, which will undergo domestic consultations before being submitted to the national parliaments for ratification in 6 weeks, are expected to lead to the opening of the Turkey-Armenia border, closed since 1993 due to the Nagorno-Karabakh war, and a bilateral sub-commission to discuss the Ottoman-era massacres of Armenians in 1915. The agreement builds upon April’s roadmap for normalisation of relations.

August also saw some positive steps in North Korea, with moves by Pyongyang to reach out to the U.S. and, through a series of reform steps, improve relations with South Korea. However, the tone shifted late month as North Korea lashed out with familiar threats to strike militarily against its external enemies. Pyongyang continues to resist a return to the stalled 6-party talks. In Mali, hopes for progress in the restive north were raised following the signature of a new deal between the government and ADC Tuareg rebels and pledges from Bamako to increase development in the Kidal region.

August 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Chechnya (Russia), Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Senegal, Yemen

Improved Situations
Armenia/Turkey, Mali, North Korea

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China (internal), Colombia, Côte d’Ivore, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru , Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe

September 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert
-

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
-

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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