Crisis Watch Bulletin No. 23

Date: July 06, 2005 at 01:11:11
From: Crisis Watch, [ool-18b96746.dyn.optonline.net]
Subject: Crisis Watch Bulletin No. 23 - July 1, 2005

Eight conflict situations around the world deteriorated in June 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. In Zimbabwe the government's "Drive Out Rubbish" operation left hundreds of thousands of people homeless, further deepening the country's humanitarian crisis. Interethnic clashes killed 100 people in Cote d'Ivoire, and a planned disarmament process failed to begin on time. Violence intensified in southern Thailand, where at least 40 people, mostly civilians, were killed by suspected insurgents.

Somalia's deadly rift over where to base the new government continued to deepen, leaving dozens killed and thousands displaced, and threatening to derail the country's fragile peace. In Sudan, the Beja Congress launched an offensive in June, bringing violence to the east of the country. Security remained dire in Haiti, with large parts of the capital, Port-au-Prince, ravaged by armed gangs and a dramatic increase in kidnappings. Fear and disenchantment increased in Lebanon as elections were plagued by a sharp rise in sectarianism and prominent activists were assassinated. In Israel and the Occupied Territories, a summit of Palestinian and Israeli leaders ended in disappointment, and the informal ceasefire continued to unravel.

Two conflict situations also showed improvement in June 2005. After several delays, Burundi began a series of votes marking the end of the transitional administration. In Sri Lanka an agreement on a joint aid distribution mechanism was finally signed six months after the tsunami in a deal that sparked hopes of improved cooperation between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the government.

For July 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Somalia as a Conflict Risk Alert, or a situation at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. No new Conflict Resolution Opportunities were identified for July.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

JUNE 2005 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Cote d'Ivoire, Haiti, Israel/Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, Thailand, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Burundi, Sri Lanka

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Togo, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

JULY 2005 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Somalia

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=2937&l=1).

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