Crisis Watch Bulletin No. 24

Date: August 01, 2005 at 16:29:57
From: Crisis Watch, [ool-18b96746.dyn.optonline.net]
Subject: Crisis Watch Bulletin No. 24 - August 1, 2005

URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1

Thirteen conflict situations around the world deteriorated in July 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. The United Kingdom became the first European country to be hit by Islamist suicide bombings -- four explosions on London's transport network claimed 56 lives and injured 700. A second wave of attacks on 21 July caused no casualties as the bombs failed to explode. Egypt suffered the worst terrorist attack in the country's history, with 64 killed in a coordinated triple bombing in Sharm el-Sheik, while tourists were also targeted in bombings in Turkey.

The tragic death of Sudan's first vice-president, John Garang, in a helicopter crash, came at a crucial moment in the implementation of Sudan's north-south peace agreement, putting the country's fragile peace at risk. Insurgent attacks in Iraq showed increasing sophistication, while in Afghanistan clashes with the Taliban increased ahead of September elections. In Israel and the Occupied Terrorists the 5-month informal ceasefire by Palestinian militant groups was severely undermined by spiraling violence on both sides. Kenya was struck by the worst violence in post-colonial history, killing 76 and displacing 9,000. The situation also deteriorated in Chechnya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sri Lanka, Yemen and Zimbabwe.

Seven conflict situations showed improvement in July 2005. In Northern Ireland (UK), the IRA made a historic declaration that its decades-long armed campaign was over and that it would pursue its goals through peaceful means. A draft peace agreement was initialed to end the conflict in Indonesia's Aceh province. North Korea returned to six-party nuclear talks after a 13-month standoff, while a highly contested law on flags in Macedonia marked the end of the technical implementation process for the 2001 Ohrid Accord. Situations also improved in Burundi, Kyrgyzstan and Moldova.

For August 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Somalia and Thailand as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month; and Indonesia as a Conflict Resolution Opportunity.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

JULY 2005 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Chechnya (Russia), DR Congo, Egypt, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Turkey, United Kingdom, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Burundi, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Northern Ireland (UK), North Korea

Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Central African Republic, Chad, China (internal), Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Ecuador, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Iran, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lebanon, Liberia, Mauritania, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara

AUGUST 2005 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Somalia, Thailand

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Indonesia

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=2937&l=1)

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