CrisisWatch Bulletin No. 27 - November 1, 2005

Date: November 02, 2005 at 02:04:09
From: Int'l Crisis Group, [ool-18b96480.dyn.optonline.net]
Subject: CrisisWatch Bulletin No. 27 - November 1, 2005

URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?

CrisisWatch No.27, 1 November 2005

Twelve conflict situations around the world deteriorated in October 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. Tensions rose between Ethiopia and Eritrea over their disputed border, risking a return to war. In Sudan, rebel disunity, growing violence and deteriorating Sudan-African Union relations marred the sixth round of talks on Darfur. Israeli-Palestinian relations worsened amid a surge of violence. Rioting inmates took control of prisons across Kyrgyzstan, destabilising the already fragile government. Syria was shaken by the release of a long-awaited UN report on the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri, which implicated top-ranked Syrian and Lebanese security officials. In India, terrorists killed 59 in Delhi while ethnic violence escalated in the northeast. And in the North Caucasus, a major attack by Chechen rebels and local fighters in the town of Nalchik killed approximately 140. The situations also deteriorated in Afghanistan, Bolivia, Iran, the Republic of Congo, and Thailand.

Six conflict situations improved in October 2005. Generally free and fair elections were held in Somaliland, while Liberians turned out in large numbers - and largely peacefully - to choose a new president. Sierra Leone saw the repeal of a libel law used to silence media and the continuation of anti-corruption efforts. Bosnia & Herzegovina made promising steps towards EU integration after agreement was finally reached to establish a single police force. Positive developments continued in Northern Ireland as the Loyalist Volunteer Force paramilitary group announced its stand-down following the Independent Monitoring Commission's conclusion that the IRA is observing its July peace declaration. And in Bahrain, Shiite opposition groups considered ending their 4-year boycott of parliamentary elections.

For November 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Kyrgyzstan and Ethiopia/Eritrea as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. No new Conflict Resolution Opportunities are identified for November.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

OCTOBER 2005 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Bolivia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, India (non-Kashmir), Iran, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kyrgyzstan, North Caucasus (Russia), Republic of Congo, Sudan, Syria, Thailand

Improved Situations
Bahrain, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Liberia, Northern Ireland (UK), Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia)

Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lebanon, Macedonia, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia & Montenegro, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Swaziland, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

NOVEMBER 2005 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Ethiopia/Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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