CrisisWatch Bulletin No. 28 - December 1, 2005

Date: December 01, 2005 at 17:06:36
From: Int'l Crisis Group, [ool-18b9649f.dyn.optonline.net]
Subject: CrisisWatch Bulletin No. 28 - December 1, 2005

URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1

CrisisWatch N°28, 1 December 2005

Nine conflict situations around the world deteriorated in November 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. In Ethiopia, opposition protests over the results of the May parliamentary elections provoked a massive crackdown by security forces with at least 46 deaths and thousands of arrests. Tensions also rose between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as both countries deployed high concentrations of troops to their disputed border, risking a return to war. In Azerbaijan, parliamentary elections on 6 November failed to meet international standards and provoked street protests. Suspected Islamist militants intensified attacks on the judiciary in Bangladesh. And in Jordan, three coordinated suicide bomb attacks at Western hotels killed 60. The situations also deteriorated in Chad, Sierra Leone, Turkey and Uganda.

Three conflict situations improved in November 2005. Nepal’s Maoist rebels announced their acceptance of multi-party democracy and renounced violence against civilians in a landmark deal with seven political parties. Macedonia and Bosnia & Herzegovina advanced further towards EU membership: the European Commission recommended Macedonia receive candidate status and Bosnia & Herzegovina was authorised to begin negotiations on its Stabilisation and Association Agreement.

For December 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Iraq and Ethiopia/Eritrea as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. No new Conflict Resolution Opportunities are identified for December.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

NOVEMBER 2005 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Chad, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Jordan, Sierra Leone, Turkey, Uganda

Improved Situations
Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Nepal

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia & Montenegro, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

DECEMBER 2005 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Ethiopia/Eritrea, Iraq

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=2937&l=1#C1)

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