CrisisWatch Bulletin No 32

Date: April 11, 2006 at 10:29:12
From: Int'l Crisis Group, [ool-457a090c.dyn.optonline.net]
Subject: CrisisWatch Bulletin No 32 - April 1, 2006

URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm

CrisisWatch
1 April 2006

Ten conflict situations around the world deteriorated in February 2006, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. Heavy fighting in Mogadishu killed up to 140 and risked undermining political progress in Somalia. The presidential election in Belarus was marred by electoral violations and a crackdown on opposition protesters. Clashes in Pakistan’s North Waziristan killed over 200 and threatened to spread to neighbouring tribal regions. In Uzbekistan, the government intensified its campaign on opposition activists and international organisations, expelling the United Nations refugee agency and sentencing dissidents to long prison terms. The situation also deteriorated in the Central African Republic, Chad, Ecuador, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau/Senegal and Turkey.

Four conflict situations showed improvement in March 2006. Prospects for Côte d’Ivoire’s long-delayed peace process improved as Forces Nouvelles leader Guillaume Soro returned to Abidjan for the first full session of the transitional government. In Spain, Basque separatists ETA announced a permanent ceasefire, raising hopes for a lasting solution to the longstanding conflict. Vital constitutional reforms were agreed upon by the main political parties in Bosnia & Herzegovina. And in Haiti, the situation showed some signs of improvement, with a decline in kidnappings and attacks on the UN mission since February’s presidential elections.

For April 2006, CrisisWatch identifies Afghanistan, Guinea, Iraq, Nepal and Somalia as Conflict Risk Alerts or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. A Conflict Resolution Opportunity is identified in the Basque Country.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

MARCH 2006 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Belarus, Central African Republic, Chad, Ecuador, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau/Senegal, Pakistan, Somalia, Turkey, Uzbekistan

Improved Situations
Basque Country (Spain), Bosnia & Herzegovina, Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Gabon, Georgia, Guinea, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

APRIL 2006 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alerts
Afghanistan, Guinea, Iraq, Nepal, Somalia

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Basque Country (Spain)

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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